CMC Client Data Shows 1,193% Surge in Brent Trades During Iran Strikes

CMC Markets clients in Australia executed 1,193% more Brent crude trades in March 2026 than in the previous month, according to a report released Tuesday by the broker. CMC presented the figure as evidence of rapid trader attention shifts during periods of volatility. March marked the month when US and Israeli strikes on Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent surging 13% to $82 at the March 2 open—a 14-month high—and later topping $115.

The report, "Inside the Mind of the Trader," also highlighted two other data points. Bitcoin trade counts fell 27% between December 2025 and January 2026, while gold trade counts rose 44% over the same period. This followed Bitcoin's peak of $126,080 in October 2025 and its subsequent drop below $90,000 in November. CMC characterized the rotation as a move away from risk-on positioning after a period of "bullish overconfidence." Additionally, average monthly trades in Commonwealth Bank of Australia shares fell 53% between January and April 2026 compared with the 2025 average, after the stock closed at A$158 in January 2025 against a Morningstar fair value estimate of A$95.

All three figures represent percentage changes without base numbers, covering trade counts rather than volume, and are limited to the Australian business. Sakis Paratsoukidis, head of quantitative trading for CMC in Australia and New Zealand, said in the report: "The challenge for traders isn't a lack of information, it's how they process it."

The two instruments cited in the rotation example—crypto and gold—are also those the Australian unit has been opening up. CMC launched 24/7 crypto CFD trading for Australian clients, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, without weekend or after-hours restrictions. It followed with weekend gold CFDs, offering access while underlying spot and futures markets are closed. The report did not address the relationship between extended access and the reactive trading it describes.

CMC built its case on DALBAR's investor gap studies, citing a shortfall of 8.48% against the S&P 500 in 2024. In the same paragraph, it noted the most recent reading of 0.72%, the lowest since 2012, without addressing the contradiction. The Australian regulator, ASIC, found that 68% of retail CFD investors lost money in the 2024 financial year, losing over A$458 million including A$73 million in fees. In a January 20 report, ASIC detailed a review of 52 licensed CFD issuers, securing nearly A$40 million in refunds for more than 38,000 investors, and found that more than half the sector had breached its product intervention order by offering margin discounts on opposing long and short positions. ASIC located the problem in product design and distribution; CMC's report located it in client thinking. Neither the review nor the regulator's loss data appeared in the report.

The academic foundation of the report includes Kahneman and Tversky's 1979 prospect theory paper and Barber and Odean's 2000 study on overtrading, while the herd mentality section references GameStop in 2021. CMC has previously published client data, including a breakdown showing Australians on its investing platform traded local stocks nearly six times more than US-listed ones. Its parent company reported record client assets of £46.3 billion in its most recent update.