Eurex Explores Potential Entry into Prediction Markets Amid Growing Exchange Competition

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Eurex is assessing a possible move into prediction markets as major U.S. exchanges expand their offerings of event-based trading products, according to a report by Risk.net.

Zubin Ramdarshan, global co-head of derivatives products and markets at Eurex, said the exchange has examined the concept for several years and has "frequently raised it in budget discussions." While no formal decision has been announced, Eurex's existing infrastructure could provide a foundation for such a move.

The exchange already lists dividend derivatives regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which are classified as event contracts. Ramdarshan indicated these products could serve as a structural basis if Eurex proceeds into prediction-style markets.

U.S. Exchanges Expand Event-Based Offerings

Several U.S. exchanges have accelerated development of event-driven and binary-style contracts tied to asset prices and macroeconomic indicators.

CME Group launched retail-focused event contracts in late 2022 covering benchmarks such as the S&P 500, oil, gold and major currencies. By February 2026, the exchange reported that 100 million contracts had traded within eight weeks across financial indicators, cultural events and sports-related outcomes, reflecting growing participation from both retail and institutional traders.

Cboe Global Markets is developing regulated binary options linked to S&P 500 outcomes, targeting a mid-2026 rollout under oversight from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Nasdaq is also exploring binary contracts tied to asset prices and macroeconomic data, including performance of the Nasdaq-100 index, though it has not confirmed any launch plans as of early 2026.

In parallel, non-bank market maker Susquehanna International Group established a prediction-focused desk in 2023 aimed at retail clients.

Eurex Focuses on Liquidity and Product Structure

Eurex has continued expanding liquidity in short-term derivatives, introducing same-day options on the Euro Stoxx 50 and DAX in 2023. The exchange has not specified whether any potential prediction-market initiative would focus on retail investors, institutional participants, or a combination of both.

Elsewhere, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has invested up to $2 billion in Polymarket in 2025 to facilitate institutional distribution of event-related data. ICE is also considering listing weather- or inflation-linked binary contracts on ICE Futures U.S.

The developments highlight intensifying competition among global exchanges seeking to capture demand for event-based trading products, as regulatory frameworks and market structures continue to evolve.