No Prediction Market Has Applied to Operate in Australia, ASIC Says

No prediction market operator has applied to the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) for a license to operate in the country, according to Sarah Court, who chairs the regulator. Court provided the update at a Senate estimates hearing on Thursday.

She said that an application under Australia's financial services licensing regime would allow ASIC to assess whether such platforms are suitable, and that any bid would face a high bar. Without a license, prediction markets are more likely to be subject to gambling rules than financial ones, according to Bloomberg.

ASIC had already set out its position in August, when its Moneysmart consumer website stated that no prediction market is licensed as a financial market in Australia. The guidance noted that event contracts share characteristics with binary options, which ASIC banned for retail clients in 2021 and extended the ban to October 2031 after a review found that around 75% of retail clients lost money trading them. The regulator told consumers: "You are more likely to lose money than make money."

Australians can still access offshore prediction market venues, but they lose access to dispute resolution and client money safeguards, according to ASIC. In August 2025, the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) blocked Polymarket, finding that it offered a prohibited gambling service under the Interactive Gambling Act 2001.

The regulatory approach contrasts with other jurisdictions. In the US, event contracts trade on exchanges overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), though state gaming regulators contest that model; New York ordered Kalshi to stop offering sports contracts it treated as unlicensed wagering. In Europe, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) said in July that event contracts can fall under its retail binary options ban regardless of their name and that selling them requires MiFID II authorization. IG Group, meanwhile, applied to Britain's Gambling Commission for the type of license held by Spreadex to offer politics, entertainment and sports markets from early 2027.

Prediction markets have grown rapidly elsewhere. Taker volume at Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket's US venue reached $172.4 billion in the third quarter, up from $98.5 billion in the second, according to FM Intelligence calculations. In July, IG Group agreed to acquire US sports and prediction markets operator Underdog for an upfront enterprise value of about $1.1 billion.