Plus500 Sees 20% Margin on Its US Business, Double What Its CEO Calls Market Practice

Plus500 expects its US futures and prediction markets business to achieve a profit margin of "20% and above," Chief Executive David Zruia said during the first-half earnings call. He described the typical market practice as 10%. The company does not separately report profit for the US operation in its interim accounts, which treat all segments as one. Zruia’s comment to a KBW analyst marks the first public indication of the unit’s profitability.

The non-OTC business, which includes futures, prediction markets, and share dealing, generated about $70 million in the first half of 2026, roughly 15% of group revenue. Plus500 is targeting an annualized revenue of approximately $140 million for 2026. A 20% margin on that revenue would equate to about $28 million. The company did not specify whether the margin refers to profit before or after tax, and the figure is a management expectation rather than a reported result.

Chief Financial Officer Elad Even-Chen detailed four revenue streams from the institutional prediction markets business: software fees, clearing fees, order routing fees, and interest income at the omnibus account level. Retail customers pay commissions, while the CFD business charges spreads and overnight financing. Hedge funds are among the institutions clearing prediction market contracts, which Plus500 expanded into sports in June. Even-Chen noted that introducing brokers often hold opposite positions in the same commodity, naturally hedging the book.

In the competitive landscape, Kalshi holds about 60% of the prediction market share and operates its own venue. NinjaTrader, owned by Kraken, created an AI role in July as it moves into similar products. Plus500 owns its clearing and execution infrastructure and sells these services to other firms, having recently signed a deal with Wealthsimple in Canada and announced a partnership with Brazil’s Nelogica.

Zruia outlined plans to launch a "super app," a one-stop trading platform expected next year, and said Plus500 is seeking bolt-on acquisitions to supply the necessary licenses. Its most recent purchase, Mehta Equities in India, closed in February and is still being optimized; Zruia declined to quantify its contribution to the 30% year-over-year growth in non-OTC revenue. Latin America is "quite untapped," he said, with the company adding marketing and operational staff there.

For full-year guidance, Plus500 expects revenue and EBITDA to meet market consensus. Even-Chen said the company can achieve that level based solely on the second-quarter run rate, with no improvement needed. When asked to quantify July and early August trading, Zruia declined to add further detail. The company’s half-year results showed revenue up 12% year over year and EBITDA up 1%.

The US business "may require additional capital," Even-Chen noted, when asked if scaling it would reduce the surplus available for buybacks. Of the roughly $860 million held at June 30, about $550 million is tied up in regulatory capital, working capital, clearing funds, and risk balances, leaving surplus capital of about $310 million. Plus500 declared $182.5 million in dividends and buybacks alongside the results, bringing total announced returns in 2026 to $370 million. The company entered prediction markets as a clearing partner for a joint venture between CME Group and FanDuel before offering the contracts to its own retail customers.