Robinhood Shares Surge 11% as Company Moves Toward Independent Futures Exchange

Robinhood's shares surged by nearly 11% on Wednesday, reaching a closing price of $128.20, after the retail brokerage revealed plans to launch its own futures and derivatives exchange. This move deepens Robinhood's push into prediction markets, an area that has emerged as the company's fastest-growing revenue source.

Previously, Robinhood had relied on a partnership with Kalshi to offer prediction market contracts. Kalshi had been responsible for over 50% of the platform's trading volume. By acquiring a 90% stake in MIAXdx, a derivatives platform formerly known as LedgerX, Robinhood aims to list and clear contracts directly, bypassing its reliance on Kalshi.

The acquisition is a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group, which will provide liquidity from day one. Miami International Holdings, the current owner of MIAXdx, will retain a 10% interest in the exchange. The deal positions Robinhood to expand its influence in the growing prediction markets sector, which has seen significant interest in betting on outcomes ranging from sports results to Federal Reserve decisions.

“Robinhood is seeing strong customer demand for prediction markets, and we're excited to build on that momentum,” said JB Mackenzie, Robinhood's general manager for futures and international markets. The company also reported a surge in trading volume, with 2.3 billion event contracts traded in Q3 alone, more than double the volume from the previous quarter.

Bernstein analysts estimate that Robinhood's prediction market business could generate more than $300 million in annualized revenue. This forecast has led to a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of $160.

The move to launch its own exchange places Robinhood in direct competition with other fintech and crypto firms, such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, who are all vying for a share of the growing prediction market space. Robinhood's new exchange is expected to begin operations in 2026, following the completion of the MIAXdx acquisition, and will be made available to other brokerage firms, not just its own customers.

As competition heats up, Robinhood's decision to take control of its prediction market offerings represents a significant shift in its strategy to capture a larger share of the market revenue pool.