XTB Expected to Rebound in Q4 on Higher Volatility and Client Growth

​XTB is approaching its preliminary fourth-quarter earnings with expectations of a recovery, supported by higher market volatility and strong client acquisition.

Analysts at Noble Securities forecast that the Warsaw-listed broker (WSE: XTB) will report a net profit of 205 million zlotys ($56.8 million) for the fourth quarter of 2025. That would bring estimated full-year net profit to 673 million zlotys ($186.4 million).

The projected rebound follows a weaker third quarter, when lower market volatility led to a 20% year-on-year decline in revenue.

Rising Competition Pressures Core CFD Business

XTB continues to face intensifying competition in the European retail trading market. The expansion of global platforms such as Robinhood, Interactive Brokers and Trade Republic has increased pressure on established brokers.

The impact was visible in the third quarter of 2025, when XTB recorded a net client outflow of 21,500 users, the largest quarterly decline in its history.

Mateusz Chrzanowski, an analyst at Noble Securities, said the recent decline in profitability per lot reflects more than market conditions. He noted that growing competition may already be weighing on results and could have a greater effect over time.

XTB’s decision to abandon its planned expansion into Brazil has also limited growth prospects for its core contracts for difference (CFD) business.

Commodity Volatility Supports Q4 Performance

Market conditions improved in the fourth quarter. Price gains in gold and heightened volatility in natural gas helped offset lower activity in European equity indices such as the DAX.

Chrzanowski said this environment should allow profitability per lot to return to historical averages, supporting the projected fourth-quarter net profit of 205 million zlotys.

Client Growth Driven by Higher Marketing Spend

Despite competitive pressures, XTB has continued to expand its customer base through increased marketing investment. The firm raised its marketing budget by about 75% in 2025, helping it attract an estimated 865,000 new clients during the year.

More than 442,000 of those accounts were added in Poland, where year-end trading activity accelerated. The cost of customer acquisition stabilised at around 700 zlotys ($194) per user.

Noble Securities expects client growth to continue. The firm forecasts 1.3 million new users in 2026, supported by a further 50% increase in marketing spending.

Outlook Hinges on Revenue Diversification

XTB is seeking to broaden its revenue base ahead of planned product launches, including spot cryptocurrency trading and options. Trading volumes have already increased, rising 76% during a recent surge in activity in the Polish market.

If current trends persist, Noble Securities estimates that XTB could generate net profit of 1.0 billion zlotys ($277.2 million) in 2026. The forecast assumes continued diversification, following a near doubling of revenue from stocks and ETFs in the first nine months of 2025.

XTB shares rose to 76.80 zlotys ($21.28) during Wednesday’s session. Noble Securities reiterated its “buy” rating and raised its price target to 95.70 zlotys ($26.51).